News
World Bank projects global economic growth rate of 2.7% in 2025
2025/01/17 10:00
The global economy is expected to grow by 2-point-7 percent in 2025 and again in 2026. That's according to the World Bank's World Economic Prospects report released on Thursday. It added that while the global economy stab, the economies of developing countries are expected to make a slow progress in catching up with the advanced economies. Among the advanced economies, the U.S. is expected to grow 2-point-3 percent this year, while Japan is forecast to grow just 1-point-2 percent. China is expected to see growth of 4-point-5 percent this year.
Iraq to sign deal with Halliburton to develop Nahr Bin Omar oilfield
2025/01/17 10:00
Moving to the Middle East, Iraq is finalizing a deal with U.S. oil firm Halliburton to develop the Nahr Bin Omar oilfield It aims to boost the oilfield's production from approximately 50-thousand barrels per day to 300-thousand barrels per day. The deal also includes plans to produce gas from the same field. It's part of Iraq's broader strategy to increase its oil and gas production. Iraq also plans to increase its output from the West Qurna 1 field, operated by PetroChina, to 750-thousand barrels per day by the end of the year. It is also working with the China Petroleum Engineering and Construction Corporation, on a 1.7 billion U.S. dollar gas project.
BOK holds key rate unchanged amid weak currency, Trump uncertainty
2025/01/16 20:00
Welcome to Within The Frame, where we bring you today's most pressing issues from across the globe, I'm Kim Mok-yeon. The arrest of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol this week has raised concerns about its impact on the economy. Amid ongoing uncertainty, the Bank of Korea held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3 percent and downgraded its growth forecast for this year, now predicting growth to fall below 1.9 percent. As experts assess the situation, key questions remain about how recent decisions by the central bank will shape the 2025 economic outlook. And also, will government measures aimed at stabilizing prices and boosting consumption be enough to deliver the desired results? For answers to these questions, we're joined by Song Soo-young, Professor of Business and Economics at Chung-Ang University. Also joining us is Minjung Park, Professor of Business at Kumoh National Institute of Technology (PARK) 1. Let's start with Professor Park, until now, President Yoon's potential arrest has been a significant variable in resolving uncertainties in the financial market. With President Yoon's arrest on the 15th and the confrontation coming to an end, what impacts do you foresee on exchange rates, consumer sentiment, etc.? Do you think a positive trend will emerge? (SONG) 2. Recently, the national research institute, the KDI, diagnosed that "economic downside risks are increasing amidst political uncertainty." They analyzed that economic sentiment is worse now compared to the impeachment crisis of 2016. What do you think is the reason for this? (SONG) 3. In the first monetary policy direction meeting of the year on the 16th, the Monetary Policy Committee decided to freeze the base interest rate at 3%. What is the reason behind this decision? (PARK) 4. Meanwhile, The real estate slump that started in the second half of last year seems to be worsening at the start of this year. How do you think a freeze of the base interest rate in this monetary policy meeting will affect the real estate market? (SONG) 5. Since the second half of last year, the household loan interest rates at commercial banks have been steadily rising, but many expect them to decrease in the first quarter of this year. What will be the economic impacts, such as on the real estate market? Could household debt rise again? (PARK) 6. Now to the U.S., there are expectations that the Federal Reserve may freeze interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting at the end of this month. What is your view on this? What impact do you think it will have on domestic economic factors like exchange rates? (SONG) 7. With the decline in economic growth, there have been discussions about supplementary budgets, and the Bank of Korea has continuously mentioned the need for them. What are your thoughts on its necessity? (PARK) 8. In preparation for the Lunar New Year, the government has prepared the largest-ever holiday measures, including the release of 265,000 tons of key goods and a 90 billion won discount support plan. Will these measures have their desired effect and stabilize prices? (SONG) 9. The government has designated January 27th, the day before the Lunar New Year holiday, as a temporary public holiday. This was meant to promote domestic travel, but with the long holiday, demand for overseas travel is increasing. How effective do you think this measure will be in boosting domestic consumption, which was its original intent?
S. Korea's auto exports surpassed US$ 70 bil. for second straight year in 2024
2025/01/16 17:00
Korea's automobile industry remained resilient last year driven by its exports of hybrid vehicles. Our correspondent Moon Hye-ryeon has more. South Korea's auto exports continued to boom in 2024 due to robust growth in hybrid vehicle exports. That's according to the latest automotive trends report released by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy on Thursday, which shows that the country's auto exports came to 70-point-8 billion U.S. dollars last year. This marks the second-highest annual performance following the record of 70-point-9 billion dollars in 2023. Despite the global stagnation in demand for electric vehicles contributing to the point-one percent decline in total exports, the popularity of hybrid vehicles offset the losses. Exports of eco-friendly vehicles, which include EVs, hydrogen vehicles, hybrids, and plug-in hybrids, totaled 23-point-2-1 billion dollars – down by around four percent from the previous year. However, hybrid vehicle exports surged by nearly 46 percent, 11-point-3 billion dollars. In terms of domestic production, South Korean automakers produced 4-point-1-3 million vehicles in 2024, a 2-point-7 percent decline from the previous year. The top-produced models were Hyundai Motor's Avante, Chevrolet's Trax, Hyundai Motor's Kona, Kia Motor's Sportage, and GM Korea's Chevrolet Trailblazer. Approximately 67 percent of domestically produced vehicles were exported. Domestic sales dropped by 6-point-5 percent year-on-year, reaching 1-point-6-3 million units, as weakened consumer sentiment and declining EV demand took a toll. However, eco-friendly vehicle sales in the domestic market showed resilience, climbing by more than 18 percent – meaning that four out of every ten new vehicles sold in South Korea last year were eco-friendly. Among these, hybrid vehicles stood out with a 32 percent surge in sales compared to 2023. December's automobile export revenue, however, fell more than five percent from the same month in the previous year to six billion dollars. The Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy attributed the decline to factors such as the safety inspections and component factory damages caused by heavy snow in late November, as well as a drop in export prices due to weaker EV demand. Moon Hye-ryeon, Arirang News.
S. Korea's central bank holds rate steady in first rate decision of 2025
2025/01/16 17:00
Policymakers at Seoul's central bank have decided to hold their benchmark interest rate steady at three percent. Our correspondent Lee Soo-jin tells us why. South Korea's central bank held its key interest rate steady at 3 percent, as the Korean won remains weak. The decision was announced on Thursday following the first monetary policy committee meeting of the year. "We decided that it would be appropriate to maintain the current rate while monitoring internal and external conditions as domestic political circumstances and changes in major countries' economic policies have increased uncertainties in terms of the economic outlook and foreign exchange markets." It's worth noting that the rate freeze decision comes after two consecutive quarter-point cuts in both the October and November monetary policy meetings last year after the key rate was frozen at 3-point-5 percent since January 2023 in a bid to tackle inflation. There was a lot of speculation in the markets before the decision was announced. A rate cut had been anticipated by some due to concerns about a downturn in the economy due to the ongoing political turmoil, as well as uncertainties over President-elect Donald Trump's second term. But the Bank of Korea ultimately decided to freeze the interest rate, due to a weaker Korean won against the greenback, and minutes from the U.S. Fed's December meeting where officials hinted they would be moving more slowly on interest rate cuts. If the interest rate gap between the two countries widens, it could lead to further currency depreciation. In December, the average won-dollar exchange rate stood at 1-thousand-4-hundred-thirty-four-point-4-2, a change of nearly 3-percent from an average of 1-thousand-3-hundred-ninety-three-point-3-8 in November. "So it might be better to leave the interest rate where it is right now and at least for the moment have government spending increase. I do not think inflation will be a serious problem this year." The country's annual consumer inflation rose by 2-point-3 percent in 2024, the lowest rate since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. As for its assessment of the domestic economy, the Bank of Korea forecasted sluggish economic growth this year, as exports are expected to weaken due to political uncertainties. "Acknowledging concerns about the domestic economy, the central bank hinted at possible rate cuts in the future and pledged to carefully monitor inflation and currency trends before making the decision. Lee Soo-jin, Arirang News."
S. Korea's central bank holds rate steady in first rate decision of 2025
2025/01/16 10:00
South Korea's central bank held its key interest rate steady on Thursday, as the Korean won remains weak. It announced the decision following the first monetary policy committee meeting of the year. The move, keeps the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3-percent, and comes after two consecutive quarter-point cuts in both the October and November monetary policy meetings last year.
S. Korea's job market stumbles: December job decline marks weak end to 2024
2025/01/15 20:00
Employment here in Korea in 2024 rose by less than half the size of its growth in 2023. Our correspondent Moon Hye-ryeon tells us why. South Korea's job market saw a sharp decline in growth last year, with December marking the first employment figure decrease in more than three years amid political instability in the country. According to data released by Statistics Korea on Wednesday, the number of people in employment in 2024 increased by just 159-thousand compared to the previous year, reaching just under 28-point-6 million in total. This figure is less than half of the 327-thousand jobs added in 2023, highlighting a significant slowdown for the labor market. It also marks the smallest annual increase in employment since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic led to job losses. Job growth rebounded in 2021 and surged in 2022 to mark the biggest gain in 22 years – before declining in 2023 and again in 2024. The construction sector saw the largest decline, losing 49-thousand jobs – the steepest drop on record. Employment in wholesale and retail, as well as in manufacturing, also decreased. By age, employment growth was concentrated among older workers in 2024, with 266-thousand jobs added for those aged 60 and above. Meanwhile, the number of employed people in their twenties and forties fell sharply. In December alone, the number of those in employment fell by 52-thousand, which marked the first decline in more than three years. A spokesperson from the agency commented on whether these figures are reflective of weakened consumer demand due to the political instability following the December 3rd martial law declaration. "It can be said that sectors like wholesale and retail, transportation and warehousing, and accommodation and food services may have been influenced to some extent by psychological factors, showing a slowdown in these industries." With these latest figures, the government pledged to actively support the recovery of domestic demand and job creation through rapid execution of livelihood and economic support projects including job initiatives in the first half of the year. This came during a ministerial economic meeting headed by the country's Finance Minister on Wednesday – who went on to further urge all ministries to act as "dedicated employment departments" and prepare tailored job support measures for vulnerable citizens. Despite the slowdown, South Korea's employment rate for those aged 15 and older reached 62-point-7 percent, the highest since records began. Moon Hye-ryeon, Arirang News.
S. Korea's job market stumbles: December job decline marks weak end to 2024
2025/01/15 17:00
Employment here in Korea in 2024 rose by less than half the size of its growth in 2023. Our correspondent Moon Hye-ryeon tells us why. South Korea's job market saw a sharp decline in growth last year, with December marking the first employment figure decrease in more than three years amid political instability in the country. According to data released by Statistics Korea on Wednesday, the number of people in employment in 2024 increased by just 159-thousand compared to the previous year, reaching just under 28-point-6 million in total. This figure is less than half of the 327-thousand jobs added in 2023, highlighting a significant slowdown for the labor market. It also marks the smallest annual increase in employment since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic led to job losses. Job growth rebounded in 2021 and surged in 2022 to mark the biggest gain in 22 years – before declining in 2023 and again in 2024. The construction sector saw the largest decline, losing 49-thousand jobs – the steepest drop on record. Employment in wholesale and retail, as well as in manufacturing, also decreased. By age, employment growth was concentrated among older workers in 2024, with 266-thousand jobs added for those aged 60 and above. Meanwhile, the number of employed people in their twenties and forties fell sharply. In December alone, the number of those in employment fell by 52-thousand, which marked the first decline in more than three years. A spokesperson from the agency commented on whether these figures are reflective of weakened consumer demand due to the political instability following the December 3rd martial law declaration. "It can be said that sectors like wholesale and retail, transportation and warehousing, and accommodation and food services may have been influenced to some extent by psychological factors, showing a slowdown in these industries." With these latest figures, the government pledged to actively support the recovery of domestic demand and job creation through rapid execution of livelihood and economic support projects including job initiatives in the first half of the year. This came during a ministerial economic meeting headed by the country's Finance Minister on Wednesday – who went on to further urge all ministries to act as "dedicated employment departments" and prepare tailored job support measures for vulnerable citizens. Despite the slowdown, South Korea's employment rate for those aged 15 and older reached 62-point-7 percent, the highest since records began. Moon Hye-ryeon, Arirang News.
On-point: Will South Korea's exports hold up during Trump 2.0?
2025/01/14 10:00
South Korea's exports for the new year started positively, rising 3.7% on-year in the first 10 days of January, on the back of strong demand for semiconductors. Will this be sustainable even in the second Trump era? Let's turn to Professor Shim Myung-kyu. Thanks for joining us. 1. Trump's tariffs, largely rooted in his protectionist trade policies, are expected to be on the way. For South Korea, which sector will be the hardest hit by Trump's return? 2. What about chip exports? Are they also going to be in trouble? Or is this an overreaction? 3. Diversifying export markets is being touted as a solution to handle Trump's aggressive tariffs. Would you also say that's the ultimate solution? Is there any other way out? 4. But can we say Trump's return will, on the other hand, offer opportunities for Korean defense firms to expand their exports? How? What other areas of export could benefit other than arms exports? 5. Will Trump view his country's growing trade deficit with South Korea as concerning and possibly negotiate a South Korea-U.S. FTA, like he did during his first term? How likely is it that there will be a repeat of that? Why? Thanks so much for sharing your insight with us this morning. We appreciate it.