Published on: 2025/04/10 20:00
Welcome to Within The Frame, where we bring the most pressing issues across the globe into focus. I'm Kim Mok-yeon.
South Korea is navigating a complex moment for its economy and markets.
Following the impeachment ruling on former President Yoon Suk-yeol, the nation saw a brief dip in the dollar-won exchange rate and a slight easing of market volatility, reflecting hopes that domestic uncertainty might begin to fade.
But that window of calm has been narrow.
A fresh wave of global trade tensions — sparked by the Trump administration's announcement of 34% reciprocal tariffs on China — has reignited concerns across global markets. Beijing has responded with matching tariffs, and the Korean won has now climbed back above 1,460 against the dollar, with some analysts warning of further upside pressure.
All of this comes just ahead of a snap presidential election scheduled within 60 days, adding another layer of potential volatility.
To help us understand what these overlapping events mean for Korea's economy, markets, and policy direction, we're joined by Lee Yoon-soo, professor of Economics at Sogang University in the studio. Welcome.
Also joining us online is Min Joo Kang, senior economist at ING. Thank you for joining us.
(LEE) 1. Let's start with Prof.Lee. President Yoon's impeachment ruling was seen as the resolution of one of the biggest recent domestic political uncertainties.
In your view, how has this affected the Korean economy so far?
(KANG) 2. Now to Ms. Kang. Looking back at the impeachments of Roh Moo-hyun and Park Geun-hye, what financial market trends typically followed such political events? In what ways does the current situation differ — especially considering today's global economic environment?
(LEE) 3. Following the ruling, the won-dollar exchange rate briefly dipped to 1,430, suggesting a moment of relief.
But it quickly surged back above 1,470 due to rising global trade tensions.
What does this sharp reversal tell us about the relative impact of domestic political stabilization versus external economic shocks?
(KANG) 4. Now that the 1,470 level has been breached, with markets eyeing the psychological threshold of 1,500, how do you assess the risk of the won crossing that line? What short-term triggers should we be paying attention to?
(LEE) 5. In response to recent volatility, Korea's top economic policymakers convened emergency F4 meetings.
For those unfamiliar with the process, could you walk us through the key points of their action plan?
(KANG) 6. As an economic expert, do you think these measures were adequate to restore market confidence — or is there a need for more proactive and sustained steps in the near term?
(KANG) 7. One of the biggest external factors now is the return of a Trump administration and its aggressive tariff policy.
With reciprocal 34% tariffs already imposed on China, with more being threatened, how might this new round of trade conflict affect Korea's export-dependent economy?
(LEE) 8. Given this rising uncertainty, Prof.Lee, what advice would you offer to institutional investors or Korean exporters looking to hedge or manage exposure to tariff risks?
(LEE) 9. Looking ahead, a snap presidential election will take place within the next 60 days.
How much additional uncertainty could this introduce into the markets? What are investors most keen to see in terms of the next administration's economic policy direction?
(KANG) 10. Considering all of these developments — domestic political shifts, global trade tensions, currency volatility — what's your overall outlook for Korea's economic trajectory in the second half of the year? Are we heading into a more stable phase, or should we be bracing for more turbulence?
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