News

Trump says tariffs to go ahead as planned

2025/03/04 10:00

Despite a deal that's given Canada and Mexico a one month "grace period," the U.S. will go ahead with its tariff impositions starting Tuesday. That's not all an additional 10% tariff is also on the way for China. Our Ahn Sung-jin reports. U.S. President Donald Trump has announced that the imposition of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico will go ahead as scheduled on March 4th. Likewise, Tariffs on China will be doubled, to 20 percent on March 4th. Trump again cited drug trafficking as a major reason for the import taxes. "No room left for Mexico or for Canada. No, the tariffs you know they're all set." Trump on his social media further announced that the U.S. will be levying tariffs on crop purchases as well starting from April 2nd. Fruit, vegetable and nut imports have been climbing, leading to an agriculture trade deficit in the U.S. As Trump continues to slap tariffs, the U.S. economy has been startled. U.S. stocks plunged on Monday with the Nasdaq dropping by around 3 percent and the Dow Jones losing nearly 2 percent. Pundits say as investment confidence has fallen following the tariff impositions, there are growing concerns for the U.S. market, especially regarding inflation. "I think the tariff scenario is definitively an inflationary aspect to what can happen within the economy, in the market. Right now, what I'm seeing is and hearing is a little bit of a stagflation concern." The tariffs are raising concerns that tit-for-tat levies could eventually lead to a global trade war. Ahn Sung-jin, Arirang News.

Production, consumption and investment all drop on-month for January

2025/03/04 10:00

South Korea's economy faced a setback in January with production, consumption and investment all falling for the first time in two months. Data from Statistics Korea on Tuesday showed that the overall industrial output saw an on-month decrease of 2-point-7 percent. This is largely due to a fall in the mining and manufacturing industry. Facility investments saw a large drop as well. An official from Statistics Korea attributed the drop to the base effect from relatively high growth the month before and fewer working days due to a long Lunar New Year holiday.

U.S. economy grows at annualized rate of 2.3% in Q4 2024

2025/02/28 17:00

The U.S. economy grew at a solid 2-point-3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of last year bolstered by private consumption. This latest finding is unchanged from the Commerce Department's initial estimate and marks the second of three estimates of fourth-quarter economic growth with the final slated to be shared in late March. Meanwhile also according to the Department the American economy rose 2-point-8 percent for the whole of 2024. However inflation concerns have been raised as America also braces for the broader ripple effects of Trump tariffs.

U.S. economy grows at annualized rate of 2.3% in Q4 2024

2025/02/28 10:00

The U.S. economy grew at a solid 2-point-3 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter of last year based on strong private consumption. The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the rate was unchanged from its initial estimate. However, inflation indicators have been revised upward from previous reports, raising concerns about a price rebound. U.S. GDP recorded strong growth in the 3 percent range for the second and third quarters of last year. The Department said that the annual growth rate of 2024 was recorded at 2-point-8 percent.

U.S. consumer confidence index falls to 98.3, biggest decline since Aug. 2021

2025/02/26 10:00

Newly released data in the U.S. shows consumer confidence has seen its largest monthly decline in more than three years in February, amid growing concerns over the potential impact of Trump's trade policies. U.S.-based think tank the Conference Board's consumer confidence index released on Tuesday stood at 98-point-3 this month, marking the biggest decline since August 2021. It marked a 7-point drop from the previous month, and the third straight monthly decline. The Conference Board called import tariffs the main reason for the drop. The expectations index, which reflects consumers' short-term outlook for the business and labor markets also fell more than nine points from the previous month to 72-point-9.

BOK cuts key rate to 2.75%, slashes 2025 economic growth projection to 1.5%

2025/02/25 20:00

Moving on. Policymakers at the central bank have decided to lower their key lending rate to boost the local economy whose growth for this year has also been lowered. Our correspondent Moon Hye-ryeon has the details. South Korea's central bank has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points as widely expected, bringing it down to 2-point-7-5 percent. The decision was announced on Tuesday following the second monetary policy committee meeting of the year, resuming its rate-cutting cycle after two consecutive rate cuts in October and November last year followed by a pause in January. "The committee today determined that while concerns in the foreign exchange market remain, a further rate cut was necessary to support the economy, as inflation is stabilizing, household debt growth is slowing, and signs of a significant slowdown are becoming more evident." The central bank's decision reflects its growing concerns over South Korea's rapidly slowing economy, weighed down by both domestic and global challenges. Global trade uncertainties heightened by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff hikes and continued political turmoil following the martial law declaration last December led the central bank to also slash its economic growth projection for 2025. Lowering its forecast for GDP growth this year by point-four percentage points to 1-point-5 percent, it's the first time since 2022 that the BOK has revised its projection by such a large amount. Its projection for 2026 remains unchanged, as does its outlook for consumer price inflation this year. This falls in line with forecasts from other major economic institutions such as the Korea Development Institute, which also lowered its 2025 forecast from two percent to 1-point-6 percent. South Korea's real GDP growth in 2024 came in at just 2 percent, falling short of the central bank's earlier forecast of 2-point-2 percent, as weak consumer spending and sluggish construction investment were further exacerbated by the domestic political crisis. The rate cut is seen as an effort to counteract economic headwinds by boosting domestic consumption and investment, and preventing a steeper downturn. "I don't think you'll see any results within the next few months and that's because there's a usual time lag between lowering the interest rate and what you see in the markets. So I think if we want to see the full effect from the interest rate cut we need to have supplementary budget spending quickly." "However, concerns remain. The widening rate gap between South Korea and the U.S. now at 1-point-7-5 percentage points raises the risks of capital outflow, which could further weaken the Korean won and push inflation higher. Moon Hye-ryeon, Arirang News."

BANK OF KOREA CUTS RATE TO BOLSTER DEMAND

2025/02/25 17:00

Welcome to Press Perspective. It's Tuesday February 25th here in Seoul. I'm Min Sunhee. The central bank has lowered both its benchmark interest rate and its outlook for the Korean economy this year. So why and what does this mean? To answer this question and more I have Daniel Moss a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. Daniel it's a pleasure. I also have Professor Oh Joon-seok at Sookmyung Women's University with the pundit's take on the economy. Professor Oh welcome back. 1) Daniel, let's begin with your assessment of the Bank of Korea's latest monetary policy decision. 2) Professor Oh, the BOK also shared its economic growth projection for this year. What do you believe are the broader implications of its latest outlook? 3) Daniel, beyond borders, what can you tell us about the monetary policy directions of the central banks of major economies including the U.S.? 5) Professor Oh, findings for the first 20 days of February show the total value of Korean exports rose 16% on year, but I hear that based on an average daily calculation, we are actually down 2.7% as February this year had 15.5 working days during the first three weeks while last year, February had 13 days. What are your thoughts regarding this finding? 6) Daniel, auto parts exports from Korea to the U.S. marked a record high last year. Some are casting doubt on this year's performance amid Trump tariffs, others remain hopeful citing possible gains from trade tensions between China and the U.S. What do you think? 7) Daniel, a Korean trade delegation was in Washington last week and formally requested an exemption from Trump tariffs in light of the Free Trade Agreement between the two countries. We have another government delegation preparing to head to the U.S., while Corporate Korea is dispatching its own business teams. Do you suppose there are merits in seeking bilateral trade talks with the Trump administration? 8) Professor Oh, also here on the domestic front. The government here is looking into anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese steel plates entering the Korean market. Do give us some background information regarding this move and its importance. 9) And Daniel, staying with government efforts. How do you evaluate Korea's efforts to address Mr. Trump's blanket tariff campaign? All right.

BOK cuts key rate to 2.75%, slashes 2025 economic growth projection to 1.5%

2025/02/25 17:00

Policymakers at the central bank have decided to lower their key lending rate to boost the local economy whose growth for this year has also been lowered. Our correspondent Moon Hye-ryeon has details. South Korea's central bank has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points as widely expected, bringing it down to 2-point-7-5 percent. The decision was announced on Tuesday following the second monetary policy committee meeting of the year, resuming its rate-cutting cycle after two consecutive rate cuts in October and November last year followed by a pause in January. "The committee today determined that while concerns in the foreign exchange market remain, a further rate cut was necessary to support the economy, as inflation is stabilizing, household debt growth is slowing, and signs of a significant slowdown are becoming more evident." The central bank's decision reflects its growing concerns over South Korea's rapidly slowing economy, weighed down by both domestic and global challenges. Global trade uncertainties heightened by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff hikes and continued political turmoil following the martial law declaration last December led the central bank to also slash its economic growth projection for 2025. Lowering its forecast for GDP growth this year by point-four percentage points to 1-point-5 percent, it's the first time since 2022 that the BOK has revised its projection by such a large amount. Its projection for 2026 remains unchanged, as does its outlook for consumer price inflation this year. This falls in line with forecasts from other major economic institutions such as the Korea Development Institute, which also lowered its 2025 forecast from two percent to 1-point-6 percent. South Korea's real GDP growth in 2024 came in at just 2 percent, falling short of the central bank's earlier forecast of 2-point-2 percent, as weak consumer spending and sluggish construction investment were further exacerbated by the domestic political crisis. The rate cut is seen as an effort to counteract economic headwinds by boosting domestic consumption and investment, and preventing a steeper downturn. "I don't think you'll see any results within the next few months and that's because there's a usual time lag between lowering the interest rate and what you see in the markets. So I think if we want to see the full effect from the interest rate cut we need to have supplementary budget spending quickly." "However, concerns remain. The widening rate gap between South Korea and the U.S. now at 1-point-7-5 percentage points raises the risks of capital outflow, which could further weaken the Korean won and push inflation higher. Moon Hye-ryeon, Arirang News."

BOK cuts key rate to 2.75% in Feb. and slashes economic growth projection

2025/02/25 10:00

South Korea's central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points as widely expected, bringing it down to 2-point-7-5 percent. It announced the decision on Tuesday following the second Monetary Policy Committee meeting of the year, resuming its rate-cutting cycle after two consecutive rate cuts in October and November last year followed by a pause in January. Global trade uncertainties heightened by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff hikes and weak domestic demand fueled expectations of the rate cut due to downward pressure on South Korea's economy. The Bank of Korea also slashed its economic growth projection for this year from 1-point-9 percent to 1-point-5 percent.

BOK to make interest rate decision, revise growth forecast for 2025 on Tuesday

2025/02/24 20:00

Welcome to Within The Frame, where we bring the most pressing issues across the globe into focus, I'm Kim Mok-yeon. With mounting pressure amid sluggish forecasts for Korea's economic growth rate this year, all eyes are now on the Bank of Korea's upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting set to be held on February 25th. Experts anticipate a rate cut from the current 3 percent to 2.75 percent—a decision that follows recent moves to lower rates in October and November, after a period of stability last month. The Bank of Korea's chief has also signaled a downward revision of the nation's growth outlook, reducing the forecast from 1.9 percent to about 1.6 percent. Should these adjustments materialize, this year will mark the first time Korea's annual growth rate drops below the 2 percent threshold. For further insights into these developments, we connect to Kim Yong-jin, Professor at Sogang Business School. Welcome. Also joining us is Chai Sang-mi, Professor of Business Administration at Ewha Womans University. Great to have you with us. 1. (Kim) So Professor Kim, the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Committee will decide the February benchmark interest rate tomorrow. The focus seems to be on interest rate cuts to stimulate domestic demand. What is your forecast? 2. (Chai) Now to Professor Chai, Exchange rate volatility is a key factor in deciding the benchmark interest rate. Can we say that the focus on an interest rate cut in the February meeting is because the volatility of the Korean won-U.S dollar exchange rate has somewhat stabilized? What is the current situation in the foreign exchange market? 3. (Kim) A low domestic economic growth forecast is also cited as a factor for the expected interest rate cut. Domestic and international organizations are predicting Korea's growth rate will be in the 1-percent range this year. Professor Kim, what do you think is the biggest downside risk to the economy right now? 4. (Chai) Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea is expected to announce its revised economic forecast along with the benchmark interest rate decision. The Bank of Korea previously forecasted the growth rate to be 1.9 percent this year. Prof.Chai, How do you expect the Bank of Korea's economic growth forecast to be revised? 5. (Chai) If the Bank of Korea cuts the interest rate, the current 1.50-percent point gap between Korea and the U.S. will widen. What impact will the widening of the Korea-U.S. interest rate gap have on the financial markets? 6. (Kim) On the other hand, considering the U.S. Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts and the record-high household debt from last year, some analysts believe that a freeze cannot be entirely ruled out. What are your thoughts on this Prof. Kim? 7. (Kim) We'll still have to wait and see but if we do assume an interest rate cut in February, when could we expect the next rate cut? Also, what is your forecast for the final interest rate by the end of the year? 8. (Chai) Now in order to stimulate the economy, both the business and political sectors agree on the need for a supplementary budget, but there are differences in the scale and timing of it. What are your views on the scale and timing of the supplementary budget Prof.Chai? 9. (Kim) Meanwhile, regarding one of the downside risks to the economy, the Trump-era tariff policy, last week, Deputy Minister Park Jong-won from the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, along with a private economic delegation, visited the U.S. to engage in diplomatic efforts. Prof. Kim, What negotiation strategies should be prepared for the future?

Int'l financial body blacklists N. Korea for 15th year over money laundering, financing terrorism

2025/02/24 17:00

North Korea for the 15th year in a row remains on the blacklist of an intergovernmental body founded in 1989 to fight money laundering and terrorist financing. In its latest report last Friday the Financial Action Task Force also raised concerns over North Korea's role in the funding of nuclear weapons proliferation. Accordingly the Task Force is calling for increased vigilance and stronger measures to protect the global financial system. Also included on the blacklist are Iran and Myanmar.

S. Korea to impose 38% anti-dumping duties on Chinese hot-rolled carbon steel plates, mixed industry reactions

2025/02/21 20:00

Authorities have proposed up to 38 percent in anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese thick steel plates, following an investigation into their impact on the local market. Our Kim Jung-sil has more. "Hot-rolled carbon steel plates" are thick sheets of steel primarily used in shipbuilding and construction. Last year, South Korea imported 1-point-38 million tons of it from China—three times the amount in 2021. This surge is attributed to China's struggling real estate market, which has pushed excess steel into overseas markets. In response, Hyundai Steel filed a complaint accusing Chinese producers of dumping the plates at unfairly low prices, harming South Korea's domestic industry. After an investigation, the Trade Commission proposed anti-dumping duties of up to 38 percent on Chinese hot-rolled carbon steel plates. The Ministry of Economy and Finance is expected to make the final call within a month. "With the tariff increase, industries such as shipbuilding and construction that rely on hot-rolled carbon steel plates will face more pressure due to rising raw material costs." While some view this as protectionism, experts emphasize the measure does not target a specific country. "This anti-dumping measure is not aimed at a specific country, but rather targets specific companies that have engaged in unfair practices, and when these practices lead to harm to the domestic industry, this is a legal remedy to address the damage." Many in the steel sector support the measure, with one official stating that the tariffs are essential to protect domestic production from unfair competition. However, the shipbuilding industry has raised concerns, with one official noting that higher steel prices will reduce profit margins and ship orders, ultimately harming the industry. Meanwhile, the government is set to begin anti-dumping investigations on Chinese and Japanese hot-rolled steel plates. Kim Jung-sil, Arirang News.

S. Korea's exports surge 16% in first 20 days of February on back of semiconductor boom

2025/02/21 17:00

On the trade front. Exports during the first twenty days of February surged on year on the back of global chip demand. According to the Korea Customs Service on this Friday exports amounted to 35-point-3 billion U.S. dollars during this period up 16 percent on year. Semiconductor shipments overseas soared over 22 percent while passenger vehicles and auto parts also jumped more than 40 percent and 9 percent respectively. Given this latest performance Korea logged a trade surplus of 8-hundred million U.S. dollars.

Trade commission recommends 27.9-38% antidumping tariffs on Chinese thick steel plates

2025/02/21 17:00

Korea's trade watchdog has recommended anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese steel plate imports following an investigation into their impact on the domestic market. Lee Seung-jae has details. Back in July of last year, Hyundai Steel filed a complaint with the government against low-priced Chinese thick steel plates. Three months later the Korea Trade Commission launched an investigation into the case. The nation's trade watchdog on Thursday made a preliminary decision to impose antidumping tariffs on thick steel plates being imported from China, after identifying possible damage to the domestic industry. In its latest recommendation, the KTC will ask the Ministry of Economy and Finance to impose an anti-dumping duty of between 27-point-9-1 percent and 38-point-0-2 percent. The final decision on the levies is expected to be announced five months from now. The latest recommendation by the KTC comes amid the Trump administration's decision to impose 25-percent tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports starting next month. Economists say the higher tariff on steel and aluminum imports to the U.S. will lead to Chinese steel products being flooded into other regions, such as Europe and Southeast Asia, leading South Korean steelmakers to face tougher price competition. Experts also say the domestic steel industry has been hit hard due to oversupply from China, and a slowdown in domestic demand. While the domestic demand for thick plates fell in 2023, the proportion of thick plates being imported from China has increased. Last year alone, Chinese imports accounted for 17 percent of all thick steel plate purchases in the country. The domestic thick plate market is estimated to be around eight trillion won, or over 5-point-5 billion U.S. dollars. Lee Seung-jae, Arirang News.

1.0% growth rate forecast for S. Korea by foreign financial firm

2025/02/21 10:00

An overseas research institute has forecast that South Korea's real GDP growth rate this year could fall to one percent. UK-based Capital Economics on Thursday lowered its forecast for South Korea's economic growth rate this year from one-point-one percent to one percent. The institute cited the ongoing political turmoil and the slump in the real estate market. It added that due to the economic slowdown, the Bank of Korea is expected to lower the base interest rate by one percentage point this year. The average growth rate forecast by major overseas investment banks is one-point-six percent, with Capital Economics' forecast being the lowest.

Trade commission recommends 27.9~38% antidumping tariffs on Chinese thick steel plates

2025/02/21 10:00

The Korea Trade Commission on Thursday made a preliminary decision to impose antidumping tariffs on Chinese thick steel plates. The watchdog will ask the finance ministry to impose a duty of up to 38%. Lee Seung-jae explains why. Back in July of last year, Hyundai Steel filed a complaint with the government against low-priced Chinese thick steel plates. Three months later the Korea Trade Commission launched an investigation into the case. The nation's trade watchdog on Thursday made a preliminary decision to impose antidumping tariffs on thick steel plates being imported from China, after identifying possible damage to the domestic industry. In its latest recommendation, the KTC will ask the Ministry of Economy and Finance to impose an anti-dumping duty of between 27-point-9-1 percent and 38-point-0-2 percent. The final decision on the levies is expected to be announced five months from now. The latest recommendation by the KTC comes amid the Trump administration's decision to impose 25-percent tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports starting next month. Economists say the higher tariff on steel and aluminum imports to the U.S. will lead to Chinese steel products being flooded into other regions, such as Europe and Southeast Asia, leading South Korean steelmakers to face tougher price competition. Experts also say the domestic steel industry has been hit hard due to oversupply from China, and a slowdown in domestic demand. While the domestic demand for thick plates fell in 2023,.. the proportion of thick plates being imported from China has increased. Last year alone, Chinese imports accounted for 17 percent of all thick steel plate purchases in the country. The domestic thick plate market is estimated to be around eight trillion won, or over 5-point-5 billion U.S. dollars. Lee Seung-jae, Arirang News.

Goldman Sachs raises 2025 gold price forecast as gold rush continues

2025/02/20 20:00

Welcome to Within The Frame, where we bring the most pressing issues across the globe into focus, I'm Kim Mok-yeon. As gold prices continue their record-breaking ascent, Goldman Sachs, a major investment bank in the United States has revised its year-end forecast to 3,100 dollars per ounce, citing a combination of economic uncertainty, central bank demand, and geopolitical risks. The surge has sparked intense debate over the forces driving the market and the broader implications for investors. While some see gold as the ultimate hedge against inflation and economic turmoil, others question whether digital assets can still rival its status as a safe-haven investment. Today, we weigh in on the key factors shaping the market and the potential wild cards that could define the next phase of the gold rally. For this, we connect to Song Soo-young, Professor of Business and Economics at Chung-Ang University. Welcome, Professor. Also joining us from Texas is Hwa-gyun Kim, Professor of Banking and Finance at Texas A&M University's Mays Business School. Great to have you with us. (KIM) 1. So let's start with Prof.Kim, like I've mentioned, Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold price forecast to 3,100 dollars per ounce. What factors do you believe are driving this upward revision? (SONG) 2. Prof. Song, If the U.S. or other major economies adjust interest rates, trade policies, or gold reserves, how do you expect the market to react? (SONG) 3. The Financial Times describes gold as the ultimate "Trump Trade" asset as the price hike is also attributed to Trump's tariff policies. Prof.Song, Could you explain for us, the relationship between trade wars and gold demand? (KIM) 4. The U.S. dollar has weakened despite expectations of strength amid trade wars. Prof.Kim, how could this paradox be explained? (KIM) 5. In the wake of this, reports suggest that central banks are buying more gold than expected. Prof.Kim, What are the implications of this trend for the global economy? (SONG) 6. The price of gold on the KRX market is currently trading at a 16-percent premium over international gold prices. Prof.Song, What are the key factors contributing to this discrepancy? (SONG) 7. But p even with the high premium, why are domestic investors still willing to pay significantly more for gold compared to international markets? (KIM) 8. Compared to equities and cryptocurrencies, gold has outperformed. Prof.Kim, why do you think gold remains such a strong safe-haven asset despite the rise of digital alternatives? (SONG) 9. While gold prices surge, bitcoin has remained range-bound and experienced outflows from ETFs. Prof.Song, Do you think Bitcoin can still be considered a "digital gold" alternative? (KIM) 10. Prof.Kim, what do you see as the biggest wild card for the gold market in 2025? Could it be geopolitics, inflation, central bank policy, or something else?

S. Korea's producer prices for January rise for third consecutive month

2025/02/20 17:00

Producer prices rose for the third month in a row in January driven by higher oil prices. According to the Bank of Korea the producer price index stood at 1-hundred-20-point-1-8 last month up 0-point-6 percent on month. This latest hike is the highest in 17 months. Manufactured items including petroleum products and agricultural goods have been keeping the index high.

S. Korea's consumer sentiment rises for second month, driven by expectations of political stability

2025/02/20 10:00

South Korea's consumer sentiment has risen for the second consecutive month, reflecting growing optimism over future political stability. According to the Bank of Korea on Thursday, the Consumer Sentiment Index for this month reached 95-point-2, marking a 4-point increase from the previous month. This is the largest jump since June 2021. Officials said that expectations of political stability and rising stock prices led to an improved outlook on living conditions. However, the index has not yet returned to pre-martial law levels.

Government announces measures to bolster regional construction

2025/02/19 20:00

A host of measures has been unveiled to bolster regional construction by expanding related development projects, as struggles in the sector have become a cause of concern. Our Park Kun-woo has more. At an economic policy meeting held in Seoul on Wednesday, the government unveiled plans to boost the local economy, especially in the struggling construction field. "We're facing downward pressure due to a delayed recovery in domestic demand, and rising external uncertainties. The construction sector, hit by fewer orders, is seeing sluggish investment and employment, delaying any regional recovery. The government will boost support for the sector in its first quarter spending plan." This comes after the Bank of Korea predicted another decrease in construction investment this year, following a decline last year. Among the plans the government put forward are underground railway projects, worth around 3 billion U.S. dollars, in the cities of Busan, Daejeon and Ansan. These cities were chosen as their local governments have already completed discussions, regarding the project areas and cost-sharing with the central government. The projects involve either putting elevated railways running through the city center underground, or covering them with deck structures while developing the surrounding land for residential and commercial facilities. The government also plans for the state-owned Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) to buy around three thousand unsold apartments in areas outside the capital region. This follows an increase in the number of unsold houses in regional areas at the end of last year that nearly doubled compared to 2023. On Wednesday, the government hinted at the possibility of even increasing the number of purchases, depending on market conditions. Additionally, new strategic projects exempt from greenbelt zone restrictions will be announced next week to enable more flexible land development. Park Kun-woo, Arirang News.