[Weekly Focus] How Kim Jong-un's coalition with China, Russia changes regional dynamics

Delving deeper into China's Victory Day Parade this week, we take a look at how the closely watched scenes are being interpreted here in Seoul.

The gathering of the leaders of North Korea, China, and Russia sent a strong signal across the region,.. and their diplomacy could have major impact here on the Korean Peninsula.

To discuss this, we have our correspondent Oh Soo-young in the studio.

Q1. This was the first time in 66 years that leaders from the three sides came together.

Let's start with the significance of that.

Sure. On Wednesday, the leaders of North Korea, China, and Russia put on a united front throughout China’s major military parade.

It was a show of force unseen since the Cold War era, and certainly hardened present-day fault lines in the Indo-Pacific region, directed towards South Korea’s strengthened trilateral cooperation with the U.S. and Japan.

"China and Russia have openly declared that they intend to advance a so-called multipolar international order, which would revolve around the Global South, BRICS, and Eurasian states. Their gathering reflected that push.

Second, it signaled a counter-message to the U.S. and the West, considering the recent South Korea–U.S. summit and their solidarity with Japan, reinforcing bloc confrontation in the region.

For Kim Jong-un, it also underscored his push for recognition of North Korea as a nuclear power.

His inspection of a missile production factory, before traveling to China, appears intended for such projection, as his on-site visit was reported by state media for foreign distribution, but not circulated domestically.

Q2. It was also Kim's first attendance at a multilateral event, and he even brought his young daughter to Beijing.

Yes, the occasion marks Kim's first participation in a gathering of many world leaders --a notable departure from the one-on-one summits that have defined his diplomacy so far.

We saw him hold summits with Xi, and Putin,.. and also engage with other state officials, even inviting the leader of Belarus to Pyongyang,.. and shaking hands with South Korea's National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik.

This appears to show the North Korean leader is ready for more active diplomacy with newfound confidence in his coalition with Beijing and Moscow.

What's more, he's taken his daughter under his wing.

We saw the scene of him arriving at Beijing Railway Station, with teenage Kim Ju-ae in tow, receiving treatment akin to North Korea’s number two.

Some view this as a clear succession signal.

"When Kim Jong-un turned 8 years old, his father tapped him as his successor. However, as he was not given sufficient diplomatic training, he remained a leader of an isolated state until he participated in the summits with China, South Korea, and the United States in 2018.

Determined not to pass down this unfortunate experience to his daughter, Kim Jong-un seems to have brought her to China, firmly resolved to introduce her early onto the diplomatic stage and provide her with systematic training."

Some believe Kim Ju-ae is not the heir-in-training but simply there as an iconic figure for the regime, like a member of the royal family.

Only time will tell whether she'll succeed him or not, but her presence was entirely unexpected and very interesting.

Q3. Seoul and Washington hope to revive dialogue with Pyongyang. What are the chances of that?

But for now, Pyongyang has little incentive to talk, as it benefits from Russia’s war in Ukraine with troop deployments and arms supplies exchanged for economic and diplomatic returns.

If the war ends quickly, U.S.–North Korea dialogue will draw closer, and in that extension, inter-Korean dialogue cannot be ruled out.

But if the war drags on for a long time, North Korea will continue pressuring the South under a hostile two-state framework.

Also, while the U.S. and North Korea may exchange signals of interest, North Korea will demand actual policy changes, such as an end to the hostile policy.

If this tug-of-war continues, inter-Korean and U.S.–North Korea dialogue will both take considerable time.

At the same time, the potential end of the Ukraine war could mean Kim must keep his options open, shoring up ties with China, and pressing for deeper economic cooperation.

"From Kim Jong-un’s perspective, it would be the North Korean-style division of labor: the economy from China, security from Russia, reaping benefits from both.

Still, if talks to end the Ukraine war do take place and move forward, US-North Korea dialogue could open up.

In that dialogue, North Korea would seek to leverage China's backing to pressure the U.S.

This reflects a calculated diplomatic strategy."

For South Korea and the U.S., China adds another layer of complexity.

"China’s decision to invite Kim underscores its role as a key player in Korean Peninsula and regional affairs, displaying Beijing's firm influence on Pyongyang.

The message is that Seoul and Washington must maintain amicable ties with China if they want to improve relations with the North."

It's a leverage Xi Jinping clearly flaunted as he elevated Kim Jong-un's treatment with special protocol in Tiananmen Square.

There is also speculation that Kim may have consulted with Xi Jinping about the possibility of reviving dialogue with Washington, just as he did in 2018.

Q4. South Korea is aiming to get China on board. How's this working out?

South Korea will host the APEC leaders’ meeting this October, and hopes to see the leaders of the U.S., China, and even North Korea there.

Attending the Victory Day parade instead of President Lee Jae Myung, National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik has invited Xi Jinping to APEC once again.

It remains unclear whether the Chinese leader will accept.

"China initially had high hopes at the start of the Lee Administration. But despite stressing “pragmatic, national interest–based diplomacy,” Lee prioritized a summit with Japan and reaffirmed its alliance with Washington. That likely displeased Beijing."

For now, Seoul said it will continue strengthening the South Korea-U.S. alliance, while pursuing “mature relations” with China and requesting Beijing play a constructive role in Korean Peninsula affairs.

In terms of North Korea diplomacy, Seoul officials have cautioned against premature optimism, warning that Pyongyang shows no sign of abandoning its nuclear program.

While South Korea and the United States say they remain committed to reviving dialogue with Pyongyang, both allies maintain their push for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

The Victory Day parade presented a very complicated reality.

Thanks for coming in today Sooyoung.