Kim Jong-un, Xi Jinping, Putin signal complications for South Korea, U.S diplomacy with N. Korea: Experts

At China's Victory Day parade this week, active diplomacy between North Korea, Russia and China sent a strong signal to the world.

Our Oh Soo-young explains what it means for peace and denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

A new phase of bloc politics could complicate the equation for peace on the Korean Peninsula.

That's according to analysts in Seoul, after Kim Jong-un joined Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin at China's Victory Day celebration in Beijing.

On Wednesday, the leaders of North Korea, China, and Russia put on a united front throughout China's major military parade, hardening the fault lines against South Korea's strengthened trilateral cooperation with the U.S. and Japan.

"China and Russia have openly declared that they intend to advance a so-called multipolar international order, which would revolve around the Global South, BRICS, and Eurasian states. Their gathering reflected that push. Second, it signaled a counter-message to the US and the West, considering the recent South Korea–U.S. summit and their solidarity with Japan, reinforcing bloc confrontation in the region.

For Kim Jong-un, it also underscored his push for recognition of North Korea as a nuclear power.

While South Korea and the United States say they remain committed to reviving dialogue with Pyongyang, both allies maintain their push for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

But for now, Pyongyang has little incentive to talk, as it benefits from Russia's war in Ukraine with troop deployments and arms supplies exchanged for economic and diplomatic returns.

At the same time, the potential end of the Ukraine war could means Kim must keep his options open, shoring up ties with China, and pressing for deeper economic cooperation.

"From Kim Jong-un's perspective, it would be the North Korean-style division of labor: the economy from China, security from Russia, reaping benefits from both. Still, if talks to end the Ukraine war do take place and move forward, US North Korea dialogue could open up. In that dialogue, North Korea would seek to leverage China's backing to pressure the U.S. This reflects a calculated diplomatic strategy."

For South Korea and the U.S., China adds another layer of complexity.

"China's decision to invite Kim underscores its role as a key player in Korean Peninsula and regional affairs, displaying Beijing's firm influence on Pyongyang. The message is that Seoul and Washington must maintain amicable ties with China if they want to improve relations with the North."

It's a leverage Xi Jinping clearly flaunted as he elevated Kim Jong-un's treatment with special protocol in Tiananmen Square.

The diplomatic calendar further raises the stakes.

South Korea will host the APEC leaders' meeting this October, and has hoped to see the leaders of the U.S., China, and even North Korea show up.

Attending the Victory Day parade instead of President Lee Jae Myung, National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik has invited Xi Jinping to APEC once again.

It remains unclear whether the Chinese leader will accept.

"China initially had high hopes at the start of the Lee Administration. But despite stressing "pragmatic, national interest–based diplomacy," Lee prioritized a summit with Japan and reaffirmed its alliance with Washington. That likely displeased Beijing."

Looking forward, Seoul says it will continue strengthening the South Korea-U.S. alliance, while aiming to develop "mature relations" with China in a way that mutually benefits their citizens,.. also requesting Beijing play a constructive role in Korean Peninsula affairs.

Oh Soo-young, Arirang News.