Lee–Trump summit could reshape S. Korea-U.S. security alliance: Victor Cha

With a tariff deal now behind them, the leaders of South Korea and the U.S. are looking ahead to what could be their first-ever summit within this month, which would reshape the two countries' security alliance, says Victor Cha, the Korea chair at the Center for Strategic & International Studies.

Kim Jung-sil reports.

The tariff deal announced late last month may have dominated headlines, but for veteran Korea watcher Victor Cha, its biggest impact is on the agenda it clears the way for.

"Now that this is kind of been at least in a framework agreement stage that really opens up space for the two leaders to talk about all the other things that are important in the alliance. they can get back to talking about the issues that matter on security: military, defense and deterrence."

That, he says, could set the stage for adjustments, not just in policy, but in the alliance itself.

"I think they will there will be some changes coming to the alliance. We've already seen them on the economic side but there could also be some coming on the security side."

"Could you give us an example on what changes could come if you can just predict?"

"We know very clearly that President Trump wants Korea to pay more for the stationing of U.S. forces in Korea. On the Korean side, the Lee government, progressive governments in general, have been very focused on trying to return OPCON transition So that's something that could certainly come up. And President Trump has made no secret of his desire to reduce the U.S. military footprint in Korea and in including the number of ground troops that are in Korea. So those are three big areas where we could see a potential change."

Dr. Cha says any troop drawdown could be part of a broader alliance modernization , paring fewer ground forces with more air and naval power, and stronger South Korean intelligence and surveillance.

"If that's all packaged together as part of a dual effort to modernize the alliance then I think you don't have any problems. Then I don't think you hurt deterrence, you strengthen the alliance."

But he warns that acting without consultation could have the opposite effect.

"But if the United States just starts doing this unilaterally just starts pulling forces unilaterally without much consultation that can weaken the alliance and can also create miscalculation or misperception by the North Koreans and the Chinese that the alliance is weakening."

Still, he says the trade deal opens the door for talks on key security issues and their first meeting could determine whether the allies move toward a stronger, more modern security partnership.

Kim Jung-sil, Arirang News.