Crypto surges, Gold stalls, Tariffs loom: Which hedge holds in Q3?

Welcome to Within The Frame, where we bring the most pressing issues across the globe into focus. I'm Kim Mok-yeon.

Bitcoin is cooling just below 160 million won — but Ethereum is on a tear, jumping more than 25% in just a week.

Behind that surge: record ETF inflows and a historic moment in Washington, as President Trump signs the “Genius Act,” giving crypto its first real regulatory framework.

Meanwhile, gold — the classic safe haven — is losing steam.

China’s clampdown on retail demand and shifting investor flows are holding prices back, even as global volatility picks up.

And now, the countdown is on. A new round of U.S. reciprocal tariffs is set to take effect August 1st. South Korea is rushing to shield key exports like steel and autos, as markets brace for fallout across currencies, equities, and trade.

To break down what all this means for investors in the second half, we’re joined by Hwagyun Kim, professor of Banking and Finance at Texas A&M Univ. Welcome.

Also joining us is Lee Yoonsoo, professor of Economics at Sogang Univ. Thank you for joining us.

(KIM) To begin with — Bitcoin has slipped back below 160 million KRW, while Ethereum jumped over 25% in just one week.

What’s driving this divergence between Bitcoin’s sideways trend and the sharp rally in altcoins like Ethereum?

(LEE) Building on that — the recent passage of the “Genius Act” and related crypto bills in the U.S. has cleared up some regulatory fog.

How do you think this legislative clarity is shaping investor risk appetite heading into the second half?

(KIM) Looking at institutional flows — U.S.-listed Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw over $14 billion in net inflows just in Q2.

Does this signal a lasting structural shift in digital asset demand, and how critical is ETF activity as a price driver now?

(LEE) At the same time, we’re seeing traditional safe-haven assets like gold lose momentum despite strong year-to-date returns.

How do you interpret gold’s relative underperformance compared to Bitcoin, especially in light of inflation expectations and shifting rate paths?

(KIM) And adding to that — China’s recent clampdown on retail gold buying contrasts with long-term Bitcoin holders showing fewer signs of selling.

Are we possibly witnessing a long-term rotation where Bitcoin replaces gold as the dominant hedge asset?

(LEE) Shifting gears to global trade — President Trump’s new round of “reciprocal tariffs” is set to kick in August 1st.

How might this renewed trade tension affect overall global market sentiment, particularly when it comes to risk-on assets like crypto?

(KIM) Let’s stay on the trade front — with U.S. tariffs looming and high-stakes negotiations still underway, how are Korean financial markets, especially equities and export-reliant sectors, positioning ahead of this hard deadline?

(LEE) Looking ahead — Korea is now entering last-ditch talks with the U.S. to avoid a 25%–30% tariff hike on key exports like autos and steel.

If those talks break down, what kind of second-order effects could we expect on investor behavior and macro trends in Q3?

(KIM) And finally, before we wrap — with the Fed entering its blackout period and markets split on whether a rate cut is imminent, in your view, which asset — gold or Bitcoin — looks better positioned if we do see liquidity expanding in the months ahead?

Thank you for your time and for your insights tonight Prof Kim and Prof. Lee, we appreciate it.

And that will be all from us on Within the Frame.

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