Published on: 2025/06/24 23:34
So questions still linger over such a fragile ceasefire.
Will it hold or not?
Byeon Ye-young talked to some experts.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a surprise ceasefire between Israel and Iran, but its durability and the next steps remain uncertain.
Experts weighed in on the situation in the Middle East.
"The broader region is still, of course unstable and in principle this pause in hostilities could go in two different directions. It could go towards something more solidified over time or this could unravel again and lead back into conflict depending on whether or not both sides hold to the ceasefire."
Experts say there is no telling how long this ceasefire will last, but point to Iran's compromised position as an indicator that the ceasefire will hold for the time being.
"Iran's military capabilities have been enormously degraded not just during this most recent air campaign from Israel and the United States, but also really over the last several years and also many of Iran's proxies in the region have also been degraded notably, and obviously Hamas and Hezbollah, and so it may take quite some time for Iran to reconstitute a capability that can really credibly threaten Israel."
Though Israel appeared to be successful in the past two weeks, a drawn-out conflict may have brought accumulating damage to Israel as well, and pressure from the Trump administration influenced Israel's decision to agree to the ceasefire.
As for the U.S., although President Trump had initially opposed direct involvement in the conflict, he ultimately seized what he saw as a strategic opportunity, led by Israel, to severely undermine Iran's nuclear capabilities.
"That's why the U.S. joined the airstrikes, while consistently and explicitly reiterating that the objective was not regime change, but solely targeting Iran's nuclear program."
Israel now must turn its tactical military gains into long-term diplomatic success, while Iran faces tough choices on rebuilding its nuclear program and regional influence amid growing isolation.
"The challenge for Israel is to turn these tactical military victories into a strategic victory which involves politics and diplomacy. And in Iran's case, they have some very difficult choices with respect to whether or not they will try to reconstitute their nuclear program whether or not they will be able to and will be interested in reconstituting their proxies in neighboring countries."
The ceasefire between Israel and Iran may mark a pause in hostilities, but the long-term outcome remains uncertain as both sides weigh their next steps.
Byeon Ye-young, Arirang News.
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