ON POINT: S. Korea's Presidential Race: Who will record early voting favor?

Before early voting ends Friday, and we head into the weekend before the election, we have our political correspondent Oh Soo-young in studio with us.

1. Why don't we begin with this highest-ever turnout for early voting on Day 1.

On the first day of early voting, turnout reached 19.58 percent, setting a new all-time high, as over 8-point-6 million out of a total 44-point-3 million eligible voters cast their ballots within a 12-hour time frame.

With this unprecedented high for day one, there is now a strong possibility that by the end of Friday, the total early voting figures this year will top the record figure reached in the previous presidential race in 2022 which was 36-point-93 percent.

By region, Jeollanam-do Province, a progressive stronghold, recorded the highest early voting rate at 34-point-9-6 percent, while the conservative stronghold of Daegu, recorded the lowest at 13.42 percent.

In the capital region, considered the most fiercely contested battleground and a barometer of public sentiment, Seoul recorded a turnout of 19-point-1-3 percent , slightly below the national average, but still an increase compared to the 17-point-3-1 percent seen on the first day of the 2022 election.

Incheon's early voting rate was 18-point-4-0 percent, and Gyeonggi-do Province which has the largest number of voters nationwide recorded 18-point-2-4 percent.

2. And any clue as to what this high turnout rate may indicate about the result?

Now, historically,.. and globally, early voting or alternative forms of voting, such as by post, has generally been associated with younger, progressive voters.

Here in Korea, it has typically been favored by voters in their 20s and 30s, as well as the generally left-leaning middle-aged voters in their 40s and 50s, with turnout reported to be five to ten percentage points higher than on the main voting day.

As recently as the General Election last year, where the Democratic Party won 175 seats, early voting reached 31-point-28 percent the highest for any parliamentary race.

But then again, conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol also won the 2022 race with record-high early voting.

Of course,.. presidential elections tend to see a higher overall turnout, and voters aged 70 and older who tend to support conservative candidates may also turn up in swarms on the actual day of voting.

In response to this year's early voting, the DP has said early voting reflects the outrage against the conservative camp, associated with impeached President Yoon's martial law.

However, the PPP says that turnout simply rose due to increased political interest from both sides, and that conservative regions tend to see stronger turnout on election day.

So some analysts say early voting no longer disproportionately favors one side.

When early voting was still relatively new, younger Koreans showed high participation while turnout among older voters was low, but now we expect even the elderly to participate in large numbers, making it hard to conclude which side actually benefits.

What we do know is that casting an early vote usually means the voter has firmly made up their mind.

3. We're currently in a so-called black out period as opinion polls are banned from six days before the day of the election.

So it's hard to determine public sentiment. But we could potentially see the highest overall turnout for a presidential race.

Yes. Opinion polls have shown over eight in ten people intend to take part in this presidential election.

In a voter awareness survey conducted by Gallup Korea earlier this week,

86-point-8 percent of respondents said they would "definitely vote" in the upcoming election.

That's 3-point-8 percentage points higher than the 83 percent reported ahead of the 2022 presidential race.

Among those who intend to vote, 37 percent said they plan to cast their ballot during early voting, up 10 percentage points from 2022.

The actual voter turnout in the 20th presidential election was 77-point-1 percent, with early voting making up almost one in four votes.

So we'll have to wait and see what the early turnout will be, and how it will compare to the overall number of votes to draw meaningful patterns and conclusions.

That's right. Well, early voting takes is open until 6 PM on Friday here in Korea.

We'll see you back here Monday, Sooyoung.