Latest polls on S. Korean Presidential Election: Do conservatives stand a chance?

We saw official campaigning for the June 3rd election kick off this Monday, following a tumultuous weekend, during which a highly anticipated merger fell through.

We have our correspondent Oh Soo-young to fill us in on how the race looks in the latest opinion polls, less than three weeks until the election.

Good morning, Soo-young.

1. Last weekend, we saw the main conservative ticket finalised, and we now have three leading contenders.

That's right. People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo emerged as the leading conservative candidate, since there was no merger with independent contender former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, for a joint conservative ticket against Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung, who has led the polls since January.

This appears to have somewhat stabilised support for candidates among the electorate,. however, it didn't change the overall landscape of the race.

In the latest NBS poll released on Thursday,.. support for Lee Jae-myung increased to 49 percent, up 6 percentage points from the previous week, while Kim Moon-soo's decreased by 2 points to 27 percent, and Lee Jun-seok's remained the same at 7 percent.

Gallup Korea's poll on Wednesday showed higher support for Lee Jae-myung with 51 percent support, followed by Kim Moon-soo at 31 percent, and Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party at 8 percent.

57 percent of respondents wanted a change of government from the right to a left-leaning administration,. the highest figure recorded since January,. while 32 percent wanted to retain a conservative administration.

So despite the candidate swap controversy that erupted last week, the public opinion trend hasn't shown much deviation after the final race lineup was confirmed.

Bad news for conservative candidates.

2. The liberal contender has been far ahead in the polls, but there is still over two weeks left in the race.

In politics, anything can happen during that time.

Yes, Lee Jae-myung does very much lead the polls but pundits aren't ruling out the possibility of swing voters changing the equation of this three-way race.

While Gallup's survey indicates around 8 percent of voters are undecided or aren't sure who to back, the NBS poll shows a higher figure, at 16 percent.

17 percent of those surveyed say they might change the candidate they support.

The group most open to changing their support were voters in their 20s at 42 percent, and 30s at 30 percent.

This is notably the same bracket that determined the outcome of the previous 2022 Presidential Election where the recently-removed Yoon Suk Yeol won with a 0.78 percent lead over Lee Jae-myung.

These shifts are significant because other age brackets have remained relatively stable in their support --the 40s and 50s still lean heavily toward a change from a conservative to progressive government, while the 60s and 70s favour continuity.

So it seems that if those undecided voters favor Kim Moon-soo over Lee Jae-myung, this presidential election, just like the last one, could come down to a 1 to 2 percentage point margin.

That's why we've seen the candidates targeting centrist voters over the past week, with the two right-leaning contenders Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok trying to solidify their conservative base as well.

3. So third party candidate Lee Jun-seok is now perceived as a potential factor for the conservative ticket.

Yes. Over the weeks, there's been a slight but significant increase of support for the right-leaning candidate, who is presenting himself as a youthful and forward-looking conservative candidate.

However, his support base is precarious as half of those who back him say they might vote for another candidate.

This potential shift actually gives him the power of alignment.

If he merges with the leading conservative candidate PPP's Kim Moon-soo, they could together have roughly 40 percent support.

Lee has so far loudly criticised the PPP's push to join forces, and it seems half of his supporters don't want a merger.

"A merger might happen under this scenario: If Kim Moon-soo's approval rating rises significantly, and if Lee Jun-seok can add even a little bit to that, then there's a chance they can win. Because Lee Jun-seok is still young, if he doesn't agree to unify under those circumstances, he risks being blamed for the conservatives losing so he has to avoid that. But if support for Kim Moon-soo doesn't rise that much while Lee Jun-seok's support actually surpasses 10 percent, a merger is unlikely."

Well, we'll see how the first TV debate between the contenders this Sunday might sway the voters.

Thanks for coming in today Sooyoung.