N. Korea’s provocations amid closer ties with Russia: What’s next for regional security?

Welcome to Within The Frame, where we bring the most pressing issues across the globe into focus. I'm Kim Mok-yeon.

As Russia prepares to mark its 80th Victory Day, attention is shifting to a key absentee: North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Despite an increasingly tight military partnership with Moscow—including artillery shipments and reported troop deployments to the Ukraine front—Kim is known to be skipping the celebrations, fueling speculation over Pyongyang's diplomatic calculus.

Meanwhile, tensions on the Korean Peninsula are climbing again.

Hours before airtime, North Korea launched a ballistic missile into the East Sea, its first test in two months.

This coincides with a string of public military appearances by Kim—from tank factories to drone facilities—suggesting an intensified focus on deterrence and projection.

To help us break down these latest developments on the Korean Peninsula, we invite Go Myong-hyun, Senior Research Fellow at Institute for National Security Strategy. Welcome.

Also joining us from Washington D.C., is Bruce Klingner, Senior Research Fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Great to see you.

(GO) 1. Let's start with Dr. Go. So, despite growing military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, Kim Jong-un is skipping Russia's 80th Victory Day celebrations, sending only his ambassador. How do you interpret this decision? Could it be a tactical move to avoid international scrutiny, or does it suggest a more nuanced strategy in Pyongyang's diplomacy?

(KLINGER) 2. According to South Korea's intelligence agency, as many as 15,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to support Russia in Ukraine, with around 600 deaths and over 4,000 wounded. Dr. Klinger, given these numbers, what do you make of North Korea's decision to keep its troops out of the Victory Day parade?

(GO) 3. There are reports that North Korea may grant relocation privileges to Pyongyang for the families of North Korean soldiers killed in Ukraine. In a state where residency in the capital is a major social privilege, how should we read into this—generous compensation or calculated containment, Dr. Go?

(KLINGER) 4. How about you, Dr. Klinger? How is North Korea managing public perception of its role in the Ukraine war, particularly as casualties mount and foreign deployments become undeniable?

(GO) 5. Earlier today, North Korea resumed ballistic missile testing —its first in two months—firing into the East Sea. What do you make of the timing and messaging behind this launch, Dr. Go?

(KLINGER) 6. That launch also comes on the heels of a flurry of domestic military activity. Kim Jong-un visited major arms production sites, calling for expanded artillery production. What message is he sending by focusing on domestic munitions over international diplomacy during this specific time?

(GO) 7. North Korea has strongly condemned a recent U.S. homeland missile defense drill conducted in Alaska, claiming it legitimizes a preemptive nuclear strike against Pyongyang. How would you read into Pyongyang's reaction?

(KLINGER) 8. The U.S. Treasury has blacklisted Cambodia's Huione Group for laundering billions in illicit funds, including over 50 million dollars traced back to North Korean cyberattacks. What does this say about the role of cybercrime in sustaining the North Korean regime under sanctions? How much should we be concerned?

(GO) 9. The UN Security Council convened a meeting on May 7th to discuss North Korea's ongoing proliferation activities and its cooperation with Russia. In April 2024, Russia vetoed the renewal of the Panel of Experts' mandate at the UN Security Council, effectively shutting it down. How has this affected the UN's ability to track and respond to North Korea's actions?

(KLINGER) 10. And despite clear violations of Security Council resolutions, as Pyongyang and Moscow continue expanding their exchanges, what tools—if any—does the UN still have at its disposal to enforce accountability or deter further breaches?