Panel discussion: Tracking North Korea’s military ambitions and diplomatic moves

Welcome to Within The Frame, where we bring the most pressing issues across the globe into focus. I'm Kim Mok-yeon.

As the security dynamics on the Korean Peninsula rapidly evolve, South Korea has launched its fourth military reconnaissance satellite, taking a major step toward completing its independent space-based surveillance system.

At the same time, North Korea's military alliance with Russia is deepening in unprecedented ways.

A North Korean multiple rocket launcher—reportedly supplied to Russian forces—has now surfaced on the Ukrainian battlefield, sparking concern about Pyongyang's growing role in global conflicts.

What's even more alarming is that North Korean troops may soon be deployed from Russia to mainland Ukraine.

Meanwhile, as Russia gears up for its Victory Day celebrations, speculation is mounting over a possible visit by Kim Jong-un to Moscow—and the potential for a North Korea–China–Russia summit.

So what could this mean for regional security, and how should the world respond to a shifting balance of power in Northeast Asia?

For more on this, we are joined by Go Myong-hyun, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy. Welcome.

Also joining us is Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific Security Chair at Hudson Institute. Great to have you.

1. (GO) Let's start with Dr.Go, so yesterday, the Seoul's defense ministry announced that the nation's 4th military reconnaissance satellite was successfully launched from the U.S. Space Force base at Cape Canaveral.

Could you walk us through the main tasks and roles of this 4th reconnaissance satellite?

2. (CRONIN) Now to Dr.Cronin, The military plans to complete the launch of the 5th and final reconnaissance satellite within this year, wrapping up the "425 Project," which aims to secure and operationalize Seoul's independent reconnaissance satellite capabilities.

What practical impact do you think this project will have on the security of the Korean Peninsula?

3. (GO) As for North Korea, its multiple launch rocket system, reportedly supplied to Russian forces, has been captured on video for the first time.

It's said to surpass the performance of nearly all artillery systems possessed by Ukraine.

Dr.Go, how powerful is this weapon?

4. (CRONIN) Beyond weapons supply, there are now claims that North Korean troops are preparing to enter mainland Ukraine.

Until now, North Korean forces had only been deployed in Russia's Kursk region.

Dr.Cronin, what is the likelihood that North Korean troops will be deployed to Ukrainian territory? What would such a move signify?

5. (GO) In addition to this, a passenger train line between Vladivostok in Russia's Primorsky Krai and Rason in North Korea is set to begin operations on May 8th, the day before Russia's Victory Day. Preparatory work for the construction of a bridge connecting the two countries is also accelerating.

Dr.Go, could this be seen as part of Russia laying the groundwork for reciprocal benefits in exchange for North Korea's troop deployment?

6. (CRONIN) Amid this, both sides have yet to announce whether Chairman Kim Jong-un will visit Moscow for Russia's Victory Day celebration in May. One major variable is that North Korea's top leader has almost never participated in multilateral diplomatic settings.

Dr.Cronin, why has North Korea traditionally avoided multilateral talks?

7. (GO) Chinese President Xi Jinping meanwhile has confirmed his attendance at this year's Victory Day celebrations.

Dr.Go, do you think this could lead to a North Korea–China–Russia trilateral summit? What is the likelihood of Kim Jong-un visiting Russia?

8. (GO) If Chairman Kim does visit Russia, what do you think would be the most critical diplomatic benefit North Korea seeks to gain Dr.Go?

9. (CRONIN) If Kim Jong-un's visit leads to a three-way summit between the leaders of North Korea, Russia, and China, what message would that send to the West? What impact would it have on the security landscape of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia?