Why DP leader's criminal court case matters as window for Constitutional Court verdict narrows

This past week was a big one for politics in South Korea.

Prime Minister Han Duck-soo made his return after the Constitutional Court rejected his impeachment following a motion made unilaterally by the main opposition three months ago.

On top of that, the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea, leader Lee Jae-myung's appeals ruling came out.

We have our political correspondent, Kim Do-yeon to tell us more.

Hello, Do-yeon.

1. First, Lee Jae-myung was found not guilty by an appeals court, and this shook up the nation's political scene. What can you tell us about this?

That's right Dami, let me begin with what happened in court.

The main opposition Democratic Party of Korea leader Lee Jae-myung, was acquitted by an appeals court on election violation charges.

The Seoul High Court on Wednesday overturned a ruling by a lower court, which had handed Lee a suspended prison term.

Lee was indicted on charges of making false statements in December 2021 during a media interview where he denied knowing the late Kim Moon-ki, an executive involved in a development scandal in Seongnam City where Lee previously served as mayor.

He is also accused of having made false claims that there was pressure from South Korea's land ministry to rezone a research institute site in the Baekhyeon-dong area.

The appellate court ruled that neither of the statements made by Lee can be seen as spreading false information, overturning the Seoul Central District Court's ruling in November.

Take a listen to Lee Jae-myung on what he described as a 'proper ruling.'

"I appreciate the court for delivering a proper ruling based on truth and justice. But it's frustrating that so much effort and national resources were spent on something so obvious."

2. We do know he is a political heavyweight, 이재명 대표가 정치 거물이라는 것은 알고 있지만, 이번 판결의 시점도 중요합니다.

Could you give us more context?

That's right. This is important to note because Lee Jae-myung is the favored candidate to be the next president.

And, as we all know, there could be an early presidential election that will kick off within a matter of weeks if the Constitutional Court upholds President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment.

Take a look at this most recent survey.

According to a Gallup survey on 1,000 adults aged over 18 from last Tuesday to Thursday,

DP leader Lee Jae-myung was the most favored candidate for the next presidency at 34 percent, followed by Labor Minister Kim Moon-soo at 8 percent , and former PPP leader Han Dong-hoon at 5 percent.

Remember this survey was taking place as the ruling came out..

So, maybe respondents on Thursday were able to answer this survey with that in mind.

But next week, it'll be clearer whether voters who had doubts over Lee Jae-myung due to his ongoing legal battles will have changed their minds.

3. But he isn't completely off the hook from these accusations. What about the Supreme Court's decision?

That's right, the case can be taken to the Supreme Court, which would be the final and definite ruling.

Now, since prosecutors lost the case at the appeals court, they are the ones who will have to appeal the case.

Lawmakers from the ruling People Power Party are already calling for prosecutors to do so.

If there is an appeal and if the Supreme Court overturns the decision to acquit Lee Jae-myung, Lee will lose his legislative seat and be barred from running for public office for the next five years.

Here's the thing the Supreme Court has three months to make a ruling if prosecutors do appeal.

That means even if the Constitutional Court decides to uphold President Yoon's impeachment within the next couple weeks a presidential election would be just 60 days away.

This means theoretically speaking, DP Chair Lee Jae-myung could be the president before the Supreme Court rules on his case anyway which would pause the legal process.

Article 84 of South Korea’s Constitution states that the president shall not be charged with a criminal offense which basic during his tenure of office, barring insurrection or treason.

And it's all up to the Supreme Court's decision.

"Even if the prosecutors speed up the appeal process and Lee Jae-myung doesn't purposely delay the legal process, the final issue at hand would be the will of the Supreme Court"

4. So where does Lee Jae-myung's trial fit into the picture when it comes to President Yoon's impeachment? It's certainly unrelated, but surely there must be some effect.

Dami, you're absolutely right this is a criminal trial and Yoon's impeachment is a Constitutional Court trial and we're looking at the two most influential politicians of the nation.

Before the ruling, the ruling People Power Party had a bit of confidence in the trial of course because of the first result of Lee being guilty.

Many of them had accused Lee of purposefully delaying the trial process so the final result comes out after the possible presidential election.

Now, that message won't carry as much weight.

But all in all, both parties are calling for the Constitutional Court to quickly announce the date of the verdict as the continued vacancy in the nation's presidency only prolongs uncertainties.

5. So when will there be the ruling, do we know?

Dami, this is already the longest presidential impeachment trial in the nation's history.

While many guessed that the decision was likely to come in March, that ship has sailed.

Now, one thing to note is that two Constitutional Court justices will retire on April 18th leaving a bench with only 6 justices.

Therefore, it's highly likely that the Court will rule before then.

Now, if we consider the fact that all previous presidential impeachment decisions came on Fridays that means there's a chance of it happening on April 4th or 11th, but as we've seen anything is possible.

That was our Kim Do-yeon.

Thank you.