Trump 2.0: South Korea's challenges and opportunities amid domestic political crisis

As President Donald Trump took office as the 47th leader of the United States, the world has been bracing for the return of his 'America First' foreign policy.

Experts have brought up various concerns related to tariffs, trade wars and potentially a high-stakes deal with North Korea that could undermine South Korea's security.

We focus on the challenges and opportunities for Seoul, amid its domestic political crisis.

For this we have our Oh Soo-young in the studio.

Q1. Now there's been concern that South Korea is unable to fully engage the Trump Administration due to President Yoon Suk Yeol's suspension from his duties, following the martial law decree.

Yes, the lack of top-level interaction does affect our diplomacy early in the game, particularly as during Trump's first term, he didn't have much affection for the then-Moon Jae-in government, which was considered too close to Beijing for Washington's comfort and was more focused on peace with North Korea than upholding the South Korea-U.S. alliance according to observers.

Now, with Trump back and ready to revise trade agreements, impose tariffs and demand that allies pay more towards security cooperation, it's a worrying time for America's allies and partners like South Korea.

There's been hope that in recent years, Seoul's strategic value has arguably increased, as an economic and cultural powerhouse but moreover, a producer of core technologies and as a liberal democracy.

"South Korea should adopt a tailored strategy that aligns with the transactional nature of the Trump Administration, rather than its usual abstract rhetoric about the strength of the alliance. It is essential to highlight areas where South Korea excels and offers tangible benefits, such as semiconductors, shipbuilding, defence industries, large-scale investments in the United States – and its role in countering China."

Q2. Now what do you think will be Trump's approach to the Indo-Pacific region, and what would it mean for South Korea?

In this part of the world, the U.S. is focused on outcompeting China, economically, technologically and militarily --all of which are now interconnected under the broad framework of security.

That means increasing U.S. prowess in all domains but also working with allies and partners.

"I would expect the Trump administration to lean on allies in East Asia but to put much greater focus on hard power. And so the way it might lean on those allies could express itself in periods of tension when for example, it complaints about woeful underspending on defense among some of our key allies. And for that reason, I would imagine that an alliance based approach remains in the forefront. But a bigger focus on hard power capabilities is kind of characteristic of where Trump might go."

Trump in his first term has been a key driver of so-called "minilaterals", such as the Quad with Japan, India and Australia, and AUKUS with Australia and the UK.

South Korea has recently moved towards joining the second pillar of AUKUS which is about technological cooperation in cutting-edge areas, and participated in some Quad Plus initiatives.

But there have been question marks around the future of initiatives formed under the Biden Administration --such as the South Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral cooperation.

Still, experts say Washington wouldn't necessarily scrap partnerships if they're aligned with U.S. interests.

"I think the trilateral Tokyo, Seoul, Washington format is one that has bipartisan support in the U.S. This was something that for example, Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell really pushed forward an Indo-Pacific hand and which was widely applauded and, and lauded by Republicans. So I would expect that that remains a point of emphasis for the U.S."

Rough suggested Indo-Pacific partners and allies cooperate more with European nations, perhaps through the defense industry.

"South Korea's played a major role here in Europe both in foreign military sales and also in the provision via the U.S. of artillery to Ukraine. Moreover, there might be the frontiers of technology and innovation type of cooperation that are possible between leading European and Indo Pacific research institutes, universities and cutting edge technologies. All of that I think the U.S. would welcome, would even foster and would help us forge a strong front on the Eurasian land mass against this axis of revisionists led by the Chinese with their junior partner, the Russians, but also the Iranians and the North Koreans that has formed in past years."

Q3. Of course, we need to talk about North Korea. Whether we will see a revival of the Trump-Kim bromance and what that means for South Korea.

Right. Experts say there's a fair chance of President Trump reviving talks with Kim Jong-un --and even striking a 'small deal' with the regime.

That's despite the breakdown of their talks in Hanoi in 2019, where Trump requested Kim close down all of the North's nuclear facilities.

Washington's former special envoy to the Six Party Talks, Joseph Detrani says, the possibility of lifting economic sanctions could draw Kim back to the table.

"In regards to what sort of a process could be used to better engage with North Korea? I think we learned from Hanoi that the Libya Model where we expect North Korea to put everything on the table is unrealistic. It's not going to happen. I think we knew this from the 6 Party Talks with North Korea going back to 2005 with the joint statement -it's actions for actions. As North Korea gets certain benefits, they will start to dismantle their nuclear weapons programs."

Amid concerns over Trump officials referring to North Korea as a nuclear state, Detrani said it's unlikely the foreign policy establishment in Washington would ever accept Pyongyang's nuclear program, and that the South Korea-U.S alliance will likely remain "robust" due to the multiple challenges they face together.

However, to move forward, experts agree that Seoul's domestic situation needs to stabilise.

"South Korea must demonstrate its resilience in overcoming the current polycrisis to the international community. On contentious bilateral issues, negotiations with Washington should be approached with strong resolve."

I see. There'll be challenges but hopefully opportunities for the alliance too.

Thank you Soo-young for coming in today. We appreciate it.