How will U.S. policies on N. Korea evolve under Trump 2.0?

Published on: 2025/01/22 20:00

How will U.S. policies on N. Korea evolve under Trump 2.0?
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Welcome to Within The Frame, where we bring you today's most pressing issues from across the globe, I'm Kim Mok-yeon.

With Donald Trump's return to the White House, the world is bracing for big changes to the global landscape.

As for the Korean Peninsula, all eyes are on whether the American leader's policies on North Korea's denuclearization remain solid.

Following his inauguration, Trump referred to North Korea as a "nuclear power" and spoke about his positive relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. He also emphasized that he and Kim got along well, expressing confidence that Kim would be pleased with his return to office.

Following a period of high-stakes diplomacy and direct engagement with North Korea during his first term, experts are closely watching whether Trump's approach will evolve or face new challenges given shifting regional and global dynamics.

Today, we explore what lies ahead for U.S. policy in dealing with North Korea and its broader implications for global security.

For this, we invite Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific Security Chair at the Hudson Institute. Welcome.

Also joining us is Brian Myers, Professor of International Studies at Dongseo University. Thank you for coming on.

(Cronin) 1. Let's start with Dr. Cronin, During his first term, President Trump's approach to North Korea was marked by high-stakes diplomacy and direct engagement with Kim Jong-un. Do you think this style of engagement prove effective again, or do you foresee new challenges given the current regional and geopolitical dynamics?

(Myers) 2. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State nominee, Marco Rubio, recently acknowledged the failure of sanctions in curbing North Korea's nuclear development and emphasized the need for a new approach. Professor Myers, How do you gauge the potential for a drastic shift in Washington's policies?

(Myers) 3. Professor, U.S. President Donald Trump described North Korea as a "nuclear power" on inauguration day. This comes after controversy spurred over similar remarks by his Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth. Though this differs from the term "nuclear-armed state," such remarks sparked controversy over a potential shift in Washington's stance on the Non-proliferation treaty. What are the chances?

(Cronin) 4. How about you Dr. Cronin? Some say that Trump may want to seek a "small deal" with North Korea which means a freeze of its nuclear programs in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. How likely could this scenario be?

(Myers) 5.Professor Myers, How do you see the chances of Trump jumping on North Korea issues during his first few months? How much of a priority will the denuclearization issue be?

(Cronin) 6. Now from North Korea's perspective Dr. Cronin, given Trump's history of direct engagement with Kim Jong-un, do you believe North Korea would be willing to return to the negotiating table under a Trump administration? What factors would influence North Korea's decision to engage diplomatically with the U.S. again?

(Myers) 7. South Korea had been concerned about not being involved in the decision-making process if Trump moves forward with his direct-engagement strategy with North Korea's Kim Jong-un. Since Seoul currently has a leadership vacancy with the ongoing impeachment trial against President Yoon Suk Yeol, what can it do to ensure its interests are protected Professor Myers?

(Myers) 8. North Korea's state media on Friday reported on impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol's detention by the South's anti-corruption agency over his botched December third martial law imposition. Since November, the regime has often been updating its people on the situation in Korea, especially on the anti-Yoon rallies. How would you read into this? Professor, aren't they concerned about the public being shocked over the democratic activities of citizens in the South?

(Cronin) 9. Now in a recent report, Kim Jong-un reportedly sent a New Year's letter to encourage and express gratitude to North Korean troops deployed to fight for Russia in its war against Ukraine. Dr. Cronin, How much longer do you think this troop support for Russia could continue?

(Myers) 10. Meanwhile, South Korea announced the development of a low-altitude missile defense system, akin to Israel's Iron Dome, to better counter North Korea's long-range artillery threats. Professor Myers, What's the background behind this development and what will this latest technology be capable of?

11. As North Korea continues to enhance its missile capabilities and cyber warfare abilities, how do you assess the effectiveness of current global sanctions and diplomatic efforts in containing these advancements?

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